Tuesday, September 22, 2009 10:58 AM
A terse Taleb speaks of luck in life
By PATRICIA BEST
pbest@globeandmail.com
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of bestseller The Black Swan, spent the anniversary of Wall Street's collapse Tuesday evening pontificating for a group of 100 birds of a feather from <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Toronto</st1:place></st1:city> business and political life at a Grano Speakers Series dinner. Burgundy Asset Management's Richard Rooney introduced Mr. Taleb to the crowd, joking, "To err is human, to be paid for it, divine." As it happens, Mr. Taleb ended up giving the shortest talk in the series' history and then opened the floor to questions - which he sometimes answered and more often did not. Perhaps picking up on the evening's theme of randomness (both the book's subject and the style of the author), Bill Downe, CEO of Bank of Montreal, asked a refreshingly un-CEO-like question: "What's the role of luck in life?" Mr. Taleb's answer in a word: huge. "We often mistake it for skill or design."
Walter Derzko
From: Organization and Management Theory Division Listserv [mailto:OMT@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU] On Behalf Of Liu, Chengwei
Sent: Wednesday, September 23, 2009 3:45 AM
To: OMT@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU
Subject: [OMT] How lucky do you think you are? A global survey on Luck
Greetings,
We are implementing a cross-cultural behavioral survey on 'luck'. More specifically, the survey explores the use of counter-factual thinking in the application of luck. We seek your help in collecting data. The survey is conducted through an on-line format. The average completion time is five to ten minutes. All data collected will be used for academic purpose only. No identifying information will be disclosed. If you agree to help, please take the survey using the following link: http://cambridge.qualtrics.com//SE?SID=SV_8CDZQLHtS86J9LC&SVID=Prod
The purpose of the current survey is to explore why outcome bias exists through the lens of 'counterfactual thinking'. Counterfactual thinking is a mental simulation process concerning about events that could have happened but did not. The current survey examines whether the tendency of people's counterfactual thinking is a contributing factor to outcome bias.
If you choose to, we would appreciate your forwarding the same link to your contacts where you consider appropriate (e.g. colleagues, friends or students). There is no specific limitation for our sampling. We will keep all individual responses confidential and your identity will never be disclosed.
If you have any comment on our survey or would like to know more about our research project: 'The mental simulation process concerning luck and chance successes', please do not hesitate to email me at cwl26@cam.ac.uk. Thank you.
Sincerely yours,
Chengwei Liu (PhD candidate, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">University of Cambridge</st1:city>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">UK</st1:country-region></st1:place>)
Ina Freeman (Associate Professor, Groupe Sup de Co, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">La Rochelle</st1:city>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">France</st1:country-region></st1:place>)